EpiForecasts’ COVID pages give national estimates for the reproduction number, rate of spread and doubling time for Lithuania and a discussion of their methods. Subnational estimates are available for some countries but not for Lithuania. is an attempt to apply EpiForecasts methods and code to Lithuanian data. The populations of some Lithuanian municipalities are very small meaning that these approaches may not be applicable.
Data is sourced from the National Public Health Centre under the Ministry of Health which provides a daily update of confirmed cases of COVID19 in Lithuania. This case data is provided as a JSON in Lithuanian at ftp://atviriduomenys.nvsc.lt/
The data has been processed using the EpiNow2 R package to estimate the time-varying reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time. EpiNow2 uses a range of open-source tools (Abbott et al.), and current best practices (Gostic et al.).
| File | Contents |
|---|---|
| cases_by_infection.csv | Cases by infection date |
| cases_by_report.csv | Cases by report date |
| growth_rate.csv | Growth rate estimates |
| reported_cases.csv | Reported cases (incidence, based on confirmed date) |
| rt.csv | Rt estimates |
| summary_data.csv | Summary data (with confidence values) |
| summary_table.csv | Summary table (human-readable) |
These calculations are used to make a map of the municipal level data for Lithuania.
Copyright © 2021 Richard Martin-Nielsen.