This is a small project to see whether it is possible to make predictions about the outcomes of Lithuanian parliamentary elections.
I have only worked on a tighter question this time:
Given the results of the first round of parliamentary elections, is it possible to predict the results of the second round and the overall composition of the Seimas?
This was a rough presentation of my results which I rushed to publish shortly after polls closed for the second round of the 2020 elections.
This document gives a slightly more coherent explanation both of the prediction algorithm and some analysis of its results.
I am now working on what could be done to try to estimate first round results and multi-member constituency results, given polling results and historical data. This is hard for a few reasons: polls are few and there are nearly no regional polls; parties change significantly from one election to the next; and constituencies have changed significantly, particularly in the between the past three elections.